Number 9 Brigham Young visits number 3 Utah on Saturday at noon Eastern on ABC, in the biggest game of the Big 12 season, and the first time in history that both teams were ranked in the top 10 for this head to head matchup. BYU is 7 and 1, Utah is 8 and 0, and the game is the early kick of a Saturday that features seven ranked matchups, with playoff positioning and even the Heisman Trophy on the line. The rivalry is one of the oldest in the sport, and this year it is also one of the most important, because the winner will take command of the conference.
Why it matters
The Utah defence is the story of the season, and it is the reason the Utes are favoured by 4.5 points at home. Utah has allowed an NCAA best 0.9 first quarter points per game, and it has given up six total first quarter points all season, three to Arkansas and three to Cincinnati. The defence is the best in the country at starting fast, and it has made the Utes nearly impossible to beat at home, where the crowd and the altitude combine to wear down visitors. BYU, which is tied 21st in the country with 8.0 points per game in the first quarter, scoring in every first quarter this season, will have to break that pattern to have a chance.
The BYU offence is the counterweight. The Cougars have scored in every first quarter this season, and they have done it with a balance that makes them hard to defend, running the ball well enough to set up the pass, and passing well enough to keep the defence honest. The game is therefore a test of two strengths: a Utah defence that starts fast and does not let up, against a BYU offence that starts fast and does not stop. A sluggish start either way is possible, with an early kick at 10 a.m. Mountain Time, and the team that settles first will have the advantage.
What happens next
The stakes go beyond the rivalry. Utah, at 8 and 0, is in the thick of the playoff race, and a win over a top 10 rival would strengthen its case for a top four seed. BYU, at 7 and 1, needs the win to stay in the race, because a second loss would likely end its hopes of a conference title and a playoff place. The Big 12 has not had a game of this magnitude in years, and the conference will be watching, because the winner will carry its flag into the playoff conversation, and the loser will be left to argue that it deserves another chance.
What happens next will be decided at noon, and the answer will come quickly. If Utah defence holds, as it has all season, the Utes will win, and the Big 12 race will be theirs to lose. If BYU offence breaks through early, the Cougars will have shown that the Utah defence can be beaten, and the conference will be thrown open. Either way, the game is the one the Big 12 has been waiting for, and the first time in history that both rivals have met with so much at stake, and with so much to lose.
